100 days to go – where are we, what happens next?

With just 100 days to go until the 2026 Holyrood election, our Founder and Director, Mark Diffley, looks at the state of the race, what we can expect in the next 100 days, and what Holyrood might look like after the polls close.

This time in 100 days we will be flocking to the polls to elect a Scottish government in arguably the most consequential vote of the devolution era.

And while, in the middle of a long dark winter, a spring day in May feels a long way off, in truth there is now not a huge amount of time for a significant change in the public mood. So, where are we and what can we expect in the next 100 days?

What is the state of the race?

The tale of the polls since the UK general election of July 2024 can be told in three simple points:

• the SNP ship has been steadied and the party has a healthy lead, albeit that it has lost about 1 in 4 of the voters that propelled the party to victory in 2021,
• the Scottish Labour vote has been in freefall, the party having lost around half of those who voted for Keir Starmer in 2024,
• Reform UK has established itself as a force and is currently neck and neck with Labour for second place.

Of course, the public mood can change during a campaign (see 2011) but a look at the trend in the last 9 months shows a remarkable lack of significant movement, so it is going to take a huge effort to change the outcome.

Chart 1: Constituency polling since General Election July 2024

Chart 2: Regional List polling since General Election July 2024

What might Holyrood look like after May 7

If the election were held today and the polling was borne out, the SNP would be the largest party in the chamber, albeit short of the magic 65 seats that constitutes the overall majority it craves. Of course, the voting system makes an overall majority difficult and rare (again see 2011) but, in addition, a relatively modest change in the polls between now and May could make such a result much more likely or a mere pipe dream, depending on the direction of that movement.

In the absence of an overall majority, the story of the night is likely to involve the battle for second place, currently between Reform UK and Labour. While the Holyrood parliament does not have the same ‘official opposition’ trappings as Westminster, there are advantages to having the second highest number of MSPs in the chamber, including around committee membership and questions at FMQs; to say nothing of the seismic change in our politics and the culture of the parliament if Reform UK is the second largest party on May 8.

What can we expect in the next 100 days?

Each party has a unique set of ambitions and challenges ahead of May 7. Let’s look at each in turn.

Scottish Labour has the most to do to change the public mood. Its remorseless focus will be on trying to change voters’ focus away from the unpopularity of the UK Labour government to a focus on the performance of the SNP government where it feels it can win back voters. This election is a battle between two incumbent governments and Labour feels it will benefit from a focus on the SNP’s record; related to this approach will be a distancing from its UK party both in terms of policy and in terms of appearances on the campaign trail.

Being ahead in the polls and on course for victory, part of the SNP strategy will be to ensure it makes no significant errors, borne out in its recent budget statement. The party will of course try to exploit the unpopularity of the UK government and Prime Minister and is likely to feature Keir Starmer more in its campaigning than Labour will. Of particular concern to the SNP will be to try to win back the thousands of pro-independence voters who have drifted away to other parties, so its constitutional pitch will be vital in this regard.

For Reform UK, voters will want to see detailed policy proposals, which have so far not been apparent, although recent tax proposals suggest that policy announcements may be forthcoming. The party will likely focus on issues such as cutting welfare benefits, public sector efficiency and opposition to net zero policies as well as immigration, which has risen as a public priority.  It will have significant money to spend, so this will not be a barrier to getting its messages out to voters.

For the Scottish Conservatives this will be the first Holyrood election since 2007 where its UK party has not been in power at Westminster. This may give the party the freedom to produce a radical policy platform to try and engage voters. The party will hope that the modest recovery in its UK-wide poll ratings will at least help to minimise the losses that it is facing in May. Support for the Scottish Greens has been resilient throughout this parliament, despite the party sharing power for a period of time. The party has a new leadership team in Scotland as well as a popular leader in its sister party and will try to capitalise rising popularity south of the border and possibly challenge for constituency seats at this election. Similarly, the Scottish Lib Dems look likely to improve on their 2021 performance and will be keen to focus resources in building successful local campaigns in areas where they can mount a serious challenge.

The next 100 days will shape Scottish politics for the next five years and beyond.