A likely winner, but an uncertain outcome

With less than a week to go until polling day, our latest polling points towards a familiar but still unsettled outcome. In this blog, our Senior Research Manager, Scott Edgar, unpacks what the numbers suggest about the Scottish Parliament election, from the SNP’s continued lead but likely lack of an overall majority, to a highly fragmented opposition and the implications for government formation. While the balance of seats may become clear on 8 May, who holds influence afterwards, and on what terms, looks less certain.

Our latest polling suggests the Scottish Parliament election is again likely to return the SNP as the largest party, but just short of an overall majority. While that outcome would extend the party’s long period in office, it would also leave important questions unresolved about both parliamentary control and what follows after polling day.

On voting intention, the SNP continue to lead both Holyrood ballots, polling 38% on the constituency vote and 29% on the regional list. Our modelling based on this poll points towards around 62 seats, close to, but below, the 65 required for a majority. That shortfall is not matched by a single strong challenger, but by a highly fragmented opposition, meaning small movements in support from now until next Thursday could still shape where influence lies after the election.

Reform UK and Labour are closely matched, each projected to return just under 20 MSPs, with the Conservatives, Greens and Liberal Democrats clustered in the low‑teens or high single figures. The result would be a parliament in which the SNP’s dominance is clear in terms of seats, but where the remaining representation is dispersed across several parties with no obvious alternative governing bloc.

That fragmentation matters when thinking about how government might operate in practice. While 47% of voters say they would ideally prefer a single‑party majority government, current evidence suggests that this will not be the case. An SNP minority government is the most acceptable alternative, but only narrowly so (42% favourable, 44% unfavourable). A SNP–Green coalition performs slightly worse, while Labour‑led minority or coalition governments record net favourability scores of –21 and –17 respectively. Any governing arrangement involving Reform UK scores -16 but attracts the strongest depth of opposition with four in ten (43%) saying they would very unfavourable to such an arrangement.

These dynamics were visible in the STV leaders’ debate, where the prospect of post‑election cooperation was clearly being confronted. Through cross‑examination, leaders pressed each other on who they would support and on what basis, an implicit recognition that some form of accommodation may be required.

Alongside this, there remains no clear agreement on what the election result would mean beyond government formation. Voters are evenly split on whether the return of a pro‑independence majority of MSPs would amount to a mandate for an independence referendum, with 52% saying it would and 48% saying it would not.

Taken together, this points towards a parliament that may clarify which party is largest, but not how government will ultimately be formed or sustained. If the polling continues in this vein, the results delivered on 8 May may deliver clarity on the balance of seats, while the question of how parties work together, on what and on what basis remain unresolved.