Beyond the Drum-Beat of Voter Intention Polls

Amidst the growing focus on headline voter intention polls, our Research Assistant, Will Scheffler, argues that in-depth polling can tell us far more about how and why voters make their choices. With the 2026 Holyrood election just six months away, Will explores recent research carried out by Diffley Partnership on behalf of IPPR Scotland and Scottish Environment Link, showing how deeper measures, such as favourability and issue priorities, often reveal the texture of public opinion that raw voter intention figures obscure.

It feels like a new voter intention poll drops every week, setting off waves of online commentary and predictions about the next Westminster or Holyrood election. But beyond the headlines and the horse race, in-depth political polling can show us so much more. We were delighted to recently partner with Scottish Environment Link and IPPR Scotland to deliver two bespoke polls, diving into what voters in Scotland value, how they perceive key issues, and what might ultimately drive their choices at the ballot box in next year’s Holyrood election.

Instead of asking respondents who they plan to vote for in the upcoming Scottish Parliament election, our work for Scottish Environment Link used party favourability as a key metric, allowing our analysis to reflect the fluid nature of contemporary politics. Traditional party loyalties are shifting quickly, and it is important for political analysts to recognise that where a voter lands today may not be where they end up in six months’ time. By asking respondents to rate their favourability towards each party, we can capture the shades of opinion that lie beneath headline figures. These insights can signal potential movement in the electorate long before it appears in voter intention polls.

The figures below show favourability for each party, including where those favourable towards one party also feel positively about another:

The overall favourability numbers paint a portrait that politically engaged readers will find unsurprising: the SNP continues to command the highest public support in terms of favourability, ahead of Reform UK and Scottish Labour. Despite this, in general, Scots tend to feel more negatively than positively towards all political parties.

Examining the overlap in party favourability reveals that the magnitude of intersection between two parties is often asymmetric. Being on the wrong side of this imbalance could spell trouble for parties trying to ‘squeeze’ the supporters of ideologically similar rivals – for example, where six in ten of those who view the Conservatives favourably also like Reform UK, but only 44% of those favourable towards Reform feel positively towards the Conservatives. These asymmetries show how in-depth polling helps us map the competitive terrain between parties, which headline voting figures alone cannot capture.

Our work has also differentiated between the areas of broad agreement across the electorate and the issues valued most by distinct segments of the voting base. The figure below highlights a few of these partisan differences:

Perhaps the most striking figure is that just four in ten of Scots favourable towards the SNP ranked Scottish Independence in their top five issues for the next election, signalling that the governing party’s base is quickly changing priorities, and that following those shifts may be key to the party’s success in the months ahead.

Finally, our work with IPPR Scotland explored not only which issues voters prioritise, but also how confident they are that the next Scottish Government can make progress on them. The results show widespread scepticism, even on issues that our Understanding Scotland quarterly survey identifies as being of greatest concern to Scots:

• Just four in ten (41%) are confident in the next Scottish Government’s ability to provide high-quality health and care services,
• One in three (37%) are confident that they will be able to raise enough money in tax to fund public services, and
• A similarly small proportion (34%) are confident that the Scottish Government will be able to eradicate child poverty.

This contrast between public priorities and perceived Scottish Government performance shows where opportunities and risks may lie for parties seeking to build trust and develop a credible and feasible vision for public services, the cost of living and other pressing issues.

In-depth polling doesn’t replace voter intention data, but rather it adds the essential context that helps us understand the ‘behind the scenes’ of Scottish politics. As Scotland heads towards the May 2026, these types of deeper insights will be key to interpreting the polls that will undoubtedly continue to dominate the headlines.