Beyond the Headline Numbers: Holyrood’s Knife-Edge Seats

We were delighted to release our final Holyrood seat projection this morning, outlining what we think the election result will look like once all votes are counted. But the headline figures only tell part of the story.

Beneath these overall projections are many constituencies rated by our model as too close to call. Before counting begins and we get an early indication of the final result, we wanted to take a closer look at some of the key battleground constituencies and regions.

Aberdeenshire West

In the North East, the Conservatives will likely be most concerned about their chances of holding on to Aberdeenshire West. Our modelling predicted the SNP to just barely win the seat – but flip a coin and the result could be different. The Conservatives will be relying heavily on unionist tactical voting, particularly from Reform UK and Liberal Democrat sympathisers, to lend their vote and keep the SNP out of the seat. Our modelling accounts for tactical voting, but if the strength of vote lending is stronger on the day than polling has suggested, this could turn into a Conservative hold.

Banffshire and Buchan Coast

We see a similar story in Banffshire and Buchan Coast, where Reform UK has been leaning heavily on their Council defectors to drive their ground operation. This was a seat that the Conservatives were notionally within about 2% of winning in 2021, so Reform will be leaning on Tory switchers who they hope will embrace the insurgent party. We’ll be watching these marginal seats in the North East closely – they’ll likely determine whether the SNP can sweep the region.

Eastwood

We also have Eastwood in the “too close to call column”. There was just a 5% notional margin between the SNP and the Conservatives in the 2021 election, but with the Tory decline nationally, we think it possible the seat could switch to the SNP.

Galloway and West Dumfries

We expect Galloway and West Dumfries to be the most marginal of the three constituencies along the border. We project the Conservatives to retain their stronghold in the South of Scotland and win all three, but all will likely be close contests. In each of these seats, Conservative activists will be hoping that their historic success in the area deters right-wing voters from drifting towards Reform and splitting the right-of-centre unionist vote.

Galloway and West Dumfries will be the one to watch, but if the SNP outperform expectations in South Scotland by just a few percentage points, the “blue wall” could come tumbling down.

Clydebank and Milngavie

Many will regard this as a hot take, but it appears possible that Labour are able to capitalize on their regional strength in West Scotland and edge the SNP out of Clydebank and Milngavie by a razor thin margin. Yet again, our modelling suggests the seat may be too close to call, but other analysts are seeing similar boosts for Labour in similar Central Belt constituencies.

West of Scotland – the SNP looking over their shoulder

Elsewhere in West Scotland, in constituencies like Inverclyde, Paisley, and Renfrewshire West and Levern Valley, recent data has suggested the Labour Party may be closing the gap to the SNP. All three of these seats are marked as “Lean SNP” by our model – meaning that the door could be open to an upset, but the SNP remain most likely to win.

For the Labour Party to pull off an upset in each of these constituencies, tactical voting will once again need to be stronger than what we expect it to be. The opportunity could be most rife in Renfrewshire West and Levern Valley, where the Tories and Liberal Democrats combined notionally won around 20% of the vote in 2021. The Labour Party will be looking to peel off more of this unionist bloc to make inroads.

Seats being called closer to the start of the day (see Airdrie and Ayr) could give an indication of how Labour is performing in the Central Belt relative to expectations.

Edinburgh Central – A three way fight

Edinburgh Central has been the topic of much discussion and is perhaps the only “true” three-way marginal in Scotland. The Scottish Greens and Lorna Slater look set to win the constituency by a slim margin, but the SNP won’t go down without a fight here. Our model has the pro-independence parties topping the vote share, but could a split nationalist vote open the door for Labour to enter the picture?

Strathkelvin and Bearsden and Edinburgh Northern – Can the Lib Dems make gains?

The Liberal Democrats are looking to repeat some of their 2024 General Election upsets, this time poised to win Edinburgh Northern from the SNP, likely by a fairly slim margin. The party is aided considerably by the new boundaries in the capital, which carved out some of Alex Cole-Hamilton’s Lib Dem haven in West Edinburgh to the new seat.

Further West, the SNP and Liberal Democrats remain in a tight race for Strathkelvin and Bearsden. A swing of this size would be massive for the Lib Dems, who are banking on carrying over support from a recent Council by-election win in Bearsden South and their General Election win in the overlapping UK Parliament constituency of Mid Dunbartonshire. Our model lists this as Lean SNP – but certainly one to watch tomorrow.