Diffley Partnership Polling Predicts the SNP Remain Short of a Holyrood Majority
Published
New polling released by Edinburgh-based research agency Diffley Partnership shows that the SNP are set to remain the largest party in Holyrood following May’s election, but predicts the party would be shy of an outright majority.
The survey of more than 1,000 adults (16+) across Scotland, conducted by Survation between the 16th and 23rd of March, measured constituency and list voting preferences, the favourability of party leaders, and head-to-head leader matchups.
Voting Intention
The Scottish National Party (SNP) lead both the constituency and list ballots, on 35% and 32% respectively. Reform UK and Labour trail the governing party, picking up 19% each on the constituency ballot. On the regional list, Reform’s support slightly outstrips that of Labour, registering 18% to Labour’s 17%.
The Conservatives post 11% and 13% on the constituency and list ballots, the Scottish Greens pick up 8% and 11% and the Liberal Democrats poll at 8% on both ballots.
Taking this single poll, Diffley Partnership modelling predicts that the seat shares for each party are as follows:
- SNP – 62 seats
- Reform – 19 seats
- Labour – 18 seats
- Conservative – 13 seats
- Green – 10 seats
- Liberal Democrats – 7 seats
Leaders Favourability
The survey also gathered views towards political figures in Scotland, finding that John Swinney remains the most popular of the Scottish party leaders (net favourability: -10%).
Prime Minister Keir Starmer remains deeply unpopular among Scots (net favourability: -47%), while Anas Sarwar, the Labour leader north of the border, falls in between Starmer and Swinney (net favourability: -25%).
Malcolm Offord and Nigel Farage achieve slightly better figures than their Labour counterparts (net favourability of -15% and -31% respectively), although the majority of Scots have no opinion on Offord (55% don’t know).
Since February, the proportion who ‘don’t know’ their views towards each party leader has dropped, suggesting a greater focus on politics as we approach May’s election. Despite this increased attention, the net favourability for nearly every leader has declined over the same time period, including a twelve percentage point decrease in Scottish Conservative Leader Russell Findlay’s net favourability, an eleven percentage point decrease in the net favourability of Greens co-leader Ross Greer, and a nine percentage point decrease in the net favourability of John Swinney.
Leader Head-to-Heads
The poll asked respondents to imagine a hypothetical scenario in which only two people could become the next First Minister. Of the possible head-to-head matchups including John Swinney, Anas Sarwar and Malcolm Offord,
- 55% prefer Swinney over Sarwar, while 45% opt for Sarwar over the current First Minister
- 65% select Swinney over Offord, while 35% prefer Offord to Swinney
- 58% choose Sarwar over Offord, compared to the 42% who prefer Offord to Sarwar
Mark Diffley, Founder and Director of Diffley Partnership said:
“As the campaign now gets properly underway, this poll suggests that the SNP remain in a strong position, set to return as the largest party in May, but still falling short of a majority. Support for the other parties is broadly dispersed, which means relatively small movements during the campaign could have a meaningful impact on the final seat picture.
“Beyond the headline voting numbers, the survey also shows voters beginning to pay closer attention to the people who want to lead Scotland. Since February, we’ve seen a clear drop in the proportion of voters who say they ‘don’t know’ their view of each party leader, indicating that engagement is increasing as the election draws nearer.
“At the same time, favourability has softened for almost every leader. This suggests that as voters tune in to the campaign, they are assessing leaders more critically.
“Taken together, the findings point to a campaign that is now in motion, with voters paying closer attention but also becoming more demanding of those seeking office. With several weeks still to go, there remains scope for both voting intention and leader perceptions to shift further.”
Full data tables can be seen here: Diffley Partnership – Data Tables – Survation – March 2026