Election ’26: Will the Budget Change the Weather?

With the Scottish Government’s budget unveiled today, our Director, Mark Diffley, writes about whether the SNP’s vision for public finances will change minds in the run-up to the Holyrood election in May.

The budget announcement is a significant event in the Holyrood calendar every year; in an election year it takes on added importance. The question pollsters will be grappling with as we digest the Finance Secretary’s statement today is whether her decisions will change many minds before we head to the polls in May.

As we pointed out in last week’s blog, there has not been significant movement in the polls in the last few months. So, with the SNP retaining a healthy lead, the onus is on the opposition parties to capitalise on what is one of the few remaining set-piece events before the election to try and move hearts and minds.

Survey evidence, not least from our quarterly Understanding Scotland series, provides strong evidence that the key issues of importance to voters are that the focus should be on tackling the cost of living crisis and improving public services, the two issues which tower above all others in terms of what voters want to see from their political leaders.

There were numerous mentions of the cost of living during the budget speech, suggesting that, rhetorically at least, the government is alive to public priorities. Announcements such as increasing the rate of the Scottish Child Payment and the extension of breakfast club provision in primary schools will be aimed at easing cost of living pressures in low income households; polls in the coming weeks will measure whether these measures are popular and have an impact on SNP popularity, while opposition parties will put their cost of living ideas to voters in the lead up to the election.

The issue opposition parties have is that, while the majority of Scots remain deeply pessimistic about Scotland’s economy (three quarters expect it to get worse in the next 12 months), the SNP remains more trusted than other parties to tackle the cost-of-living crisis. Ipsos’ December poll found that 24% most trusted the SNP on this issue, compared to 10% who most trust Labour, 8% Reform UK and 7% the Conservatives. The glimmer of hope for opposition parties is that 25% do not trust any of the parties on this issue at this time, suggesting potential electoral gains if a coherent, popular plan for the cost of living is brought forward before the election.

On the nation’s other top priority, the NHS, the Finance Secretary made a string of announcements, including investment in new NHS walk-in centres and a greater share of the health budget going to primary care. Again, upcoming polling will allow us to measure the mood of voters around these measures and whether they begin to tackle the overwhelming public desire for NHS reform, highlighted in our research with Enlighten last year in which 93% of Scots said that reform was required.

As with trust in tackling the cost-of-living crisis, the SNP retains a lead over other parties in terms of trust to manage the NHS (28% most trusting the SNP versus 13% Labour) but 22% do not trust any of the parties, again suggesting that there is scope to win over voters on this issue.

The Finance Secretary’s announcement on income tax today, increasing the threshold for basic and intermediate income tax rates, is aimed at both helping lower earners and attempting to contrast the Scottish government’s position with that of the UK government, which froze income tax thresholds in its last budget.

Scots’ views on income tax are nuanced. Ipsos’ December poll points out that half of Scots would prefer increasing public spending even if it means higher taxes, double the proportion (26%) who would prefer lower taxes even if public services were cut. However, it is also clear that this is not a blank cheque to increase tax; as Survation’s poll in today’s Scotsman finds, only 27% think that the level of personal tax provides value for money in public services while 52% think the opposite. So, there are potential gains for any party that can demonstrate where maximum value for money is between taxes raised and the quality of services delivered.

Of course, the budget has been delivered with more than half an eye on the forthcoming election; the government wants voters to see it as being both competent, avoiding mistakes with an election looming, and eye-catching, motivating voters to back them. Opposition parties, currently behind in the polls, now have the opportunity both to criticise and unpick the government’s plans and offer voters an inspiring alternative.