Election run-in: Six things to look out for

We are at the stage where we are measuring the time for polls opening in hours rather than days or weeks.

By common consent the 2026 Holyrood campaign has been uninspiring, short of fresh policy and ideas and failing to make an impression on voters.

However, while this may be true, there is still plenty to play for and considerable uncertainty about the result. There is much to look out for in the coming days as we absorb the final polls and look forward to the results arriving on Friday. Here’s 6 things to look for:

• Look out for any late swings in the national polls: Polls conducted late in the campaign should be, and are, the most reliable as there are fewer undecided voters and more certainty. Among companies polling this campaign, their 2021 final polls performed well against final results, particularly on constituency vote share. So, look for final vote shares and how they differ from previous estimates from the same company.
• The undecideds are making their minds up but are still many and important: As you would expect, as the election looms, many voters begin to make up their minds. So far, the data does not point to any one party gaining advantage as uncertain voters start to decide. It is however worth recalling that, in 2021, 1 in 10 voters made up their minds on election day, presenting significant uncertainty, particularly in tight constituency contests.
•  Tactical voting is important but may not be decisive: Unionist parties are relying on large-scale tactical voting to stop the SNP winning in many constituencies. But this relies on voters knowing who the serious challenger to the SNP is and, crucially, being prepared to vote for that other unionist party. Our polling in March found complexity in making such assumptions. For example, in SNP/Reform UK contests, Labour voters were more likely to switch their allegiance to the SNP rather than to pro-union Reform UK. And in SNP/Labour marginals, the vast majority of Conservative and Reform UK supporters were not willing to switch allegiance.
• There are more marginal seats than usual, making seat projections difficult: The key outcome of any Holyrood election is the distribution of seats and all pollsters will be publishing final projections in the coming days. The seat projection models have consistently shown the SNP falling short of a majority. However, the high number of marginal contests in this election and the uncertainty around turnout and undecided voters make projections subject to greater than usual uncertainty and anything from the SNP being 10 short of a majority to just about reaching the magic 65 seats seems plausible. Look out for early results in marginal seats; we should know fairly early on whether an SNP majority is possible.
• Turnout is likely to be low: Commentary around a ‘loveless election’ and voters being ‘scunnered’ have become the norm in this campaign. Predicting turnout is difficult but comparing polling from 2021 to 2026 is instructive. A Survation poll in April 2021 reported that 74% were 10/10 certain to vote; in April 2026 that had fallen by 15 points to 59%, a pattern observed in other polls. On that basis, it is safe to expect turnout to be somewhere around 50%, down from the unusually high 64% in 2021.
• This is likely to be the most disproportionate result of the devolved era: The Additional Members System, which aims for a broadly proportionate parliament with a close relationship between votes cast for each party and the proportion of seats won. Overall, the 2021 Scottish election, while not perfect, delivered a broadly proportional outcome. This looks unlikely to be repeated, with the SNP being by far the largest party on a projected vote share of around 35%, due to the rise in support of Reform UK fracturing the pro-union electorate and making it easier for the SNP to hold to constituencies even with reduced support. On Friday, look out for constituencies being won on low vote shares, the result of a more multi-party system and the pro-union being split like never before.