Four Weeks to Go – Is Anything Changing?
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Our Founder and Director, Mark Diffley, looks ahead to the final four weeks of the election campaign, showing what could change the currently expected results, what to look out for over the coming weeks, and what Diffley Partnership’s work will look like as we approach May 7th.
Believe it or not we are a third of the way through the Holyrood election campaign and, with four weeks to go until polling day, public opinion remains consistent, with a fifth-term SNP government looking like the most likely outcome, even if the scale and decisiveness of that victory remain very much uncertain.
Predictably, the opening period of the campaign produced a slew of new polling. The Norstat poll in the Sunday Times, showing Labour up two points and the SNP down one from the pollsters’ February survey, was met in some quarters with a sense of wishful thinking that the public mood was shifting and that Labour had some momentum. Any sense of a shift was soon swept away with the Ipsos poll for STV which suggests that, if anything, the SNP’s position is more dominant, with the party’s vote share increasing by three points and Labour falling by four since their previous survey in February.
As ever, our advice is to take a step back and look at what the polling is telling is in broad strokes. In truth, not a huge amount has changed; until the Ipsos poll which showed SNP vote share at 39% on the constituency ballot, every single poll in the last year has placed the party at between 33% and 37%, remarkably consistent. Meanwhile, the contest between Labour and Reform UK for second place continues to be a close call, while the long-term decline in Tory support shows no sign of reversing and Lib Dem and Green support has edged up but remains broadly consistent over many months.
The other consistent trend from the polls is the theme of this being a ‘loveless election.’ We continue to see this in the negative favourability ratings of all our party leaders, highlighted in our recent poll finding that pointed to an uptick in leader recognition but an accompanied decline in their favourability ratings! We also observe significant levels of dissatisfaction with both the Scottish and, in particular, UK government, a further indicator of the lack of enthusiasm with which voters appear to be approaching the election.
So, amidst the manifesto launches and TV debates over the next few weeks, what are the key things to look out for in the polls apart from the headline voting figures? I would suggest three things. Firstly, how quickly is the proportion of undecided voters falling and are they breaking for any party in particular in a way that current data suggests they are not? Secondly, what does turnout look like? This is key to party strategies in terms of their messaging to enthuse their base support and encourage them to the polling stations. Thirdly, look at how voter priorities around key issues that will decide how they vote may change; although the NHS remains a core priority for most voters, we are seeing a rise in concern about cost of living pressures and energy policy, driven by ongoing global events and their impact on energy and fuel costs. All these factors will play a role in how the final result shakes out in May.
As we get closer to May 7th, more polls land and more voters decide, minds will turn to what the next parliament will look like in terms of seat numbers for each party. Our model currently shows the SNP as the largest party but falling short of a majority. We will be refining this in the coming weeks with new polling data. We also want to share detail about our model, how it works and what factors drive the results it produces. Look out for more blogging on this in the coming weeks and, as always, please feel free to engage with us, ask questions and share your thoughts!