Holyrood 2026: Could The Polls Change?

We’re kicking off our first Holyrood 2026 blog of the year with new analysis from our Director, Mark Diffley.

In this latest piece, Mark tackles the question he’s being asked most often as we head towards May: could the polls still shift, and what might drive that change?

Drawing on lessons from past elections and the dynamics shaping the 2026 campaign, he explores where movement could come from and the challenges parties face in shifting voter sentiment.

With four months to go until we head to the polls for the most important election of the devolved era, the question I am now most often asked in media interviews is the key one: “How likely is it that the polls will change between now and election day”? And then, if it might happen, what might trigger change?

The obvious answer, of course, to the first question is that, yes, the polls could change between now and May 7th. The go-to example here is the 2011 election, when, at this point of the cycle, Labour held a healthy polling lead, only for the SNP to ultimately win the only overall majority achieved at any Holyrood election.

Polling ahead of the 2011 Holyrood election (constituency preference)

So, late change is possible, even if the context today does feel different. In 2010, though the UK Labour government under Gordon Brown was voted out of power, Labour increased its vote share in Scotland, and it was not until spring 2011, with Brown no longer the party leader, that the tide began to turn in the SNP’s favour.

The backdrop for the 2026 election is an unpopular Labour government and Prime Minister at Westminster, a more fluid and disgruntled electorate and an insurgent party, Reform UK, which is fracturing the pro-UK half of the electorate and making the SNP’s task more straightforward.

At a high level, the polls have not changed significantly in recent months, with the SNP maintaining a vote share of around 35% and Labour and Reform UK jostling for second place. This leaves the onus on Labour to try and move the dial.

Some of their attempts to do this will revolve around strategy. How can they use their financial muscle most effectively? How do they align/diverge from the UK party and the Prime Minister during the campaign? Which constituencies will they target to try and recreate the success of the Hamilton by-election as widely as possible?

Fundamentally, Labour thinks that it must persuade voters that it is the 19-year record of the SNP that matters in this election rather than the two-year record of the UK-Labour government.

To manage this, it seems reasonable to conclude that the party needs to persuade voters that they would do a better job of running Scotland’s economy and devolved public services than the incumbent SNP.

As the recent Ipsos poll from December illustrates though, this is a significant challenge; when asked which party is most trusted on key issues, 13% of voters most trust Labour to manage the NHS (versus 28% for the SNP), while similar figures apply for trust in growing Scotland’s economy (12% Labour, 26% SNP), tackling the cost of living (10%, 24%) and running Scotland’s education system (12% 27%). Furthermore, the same poll finds that 41% most trust the SNP to stand up for Scotland’s interests, compared to 10% who most trust Labour in this regard.

So, it is true to say that, on one hand, the SNP government is far from being universally popular, but, on the other, at this stage at least, the electorate is not convinced that Labour would do better.

Any poll is a reflection of opinion at a point in time rather than a prediction of the future. So, the mood of the nation can change, though there is significant work for Labour to do if that is to happen.

Of course, Labour is not the only party with challenges ahead as the campaign gears up, and we will consider the challenges facing other parties in forthcoming blogs.