Holyrood 2026: How Economic Pressures and Public Priorities Are Shaping the Mood

In this blog, our Senior Research Manager, Scott Edgar, takes a closer look at the latest evidence on how people across Scotland are feeling as we head toward the 2026 Holyrood election. Drawing on new polling from the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, alongside findings from other polls, he explores what the data tells us about economic pressures, public priorities, and levels of political confidence as the campaign year gets underway.

As the 2026 Holyrood election approaches, the latest evidence on public attitudes paints a picture of a country focused firmly on day‑to‑day pressures.

New polling published this week by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, conducted by Diffley Partnership, highlights the extent to which economic insecurity continues to shape how people feel about their own lives, and how they perceive politics.

The findings suggest that financial strain is now a defining feature of how many voters experience the world around them. Nearly half of adults in Scotland (47%) say they are worried about their family’s economic security.

Debt is also a real concern for many, with 35% worried about building up debt in the next 12 months These figures show that the financial challenges of recent years are far from abstract; they are present for a significant portion of the population.

The Joseph Rowntree Foundation’s analysis explores how these pressures relate to attitudes towards politics which are striking in terms of levels of disaffection:

• 73% agree that politicians care more about their party than the people they represent.
• 64% agree politicians do not listen to people like them.
• 43% disagree that politicians want to improve the lives of people like them.
• 43% say political decisions do not have a positive impact in their community.

Perhaps most striking is the link drawn between financial strain and political outlook: among those who are economically insecure, 41% also report being politically disaffected. This rises to 64% among those who intend to vote for Reform UK at the upcoming election.

From polling we conducted for the Electoral Reform Society in April last year we found that politicians and political parties were trusted the least out of a series of institutions that we asked about, ranking at 2.8 and 3.1 on a trust scale, lower than the NHS (6.5) or Banks (5.1). The topline can be found here.

These patterns align closely with what we continue to see in the Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker, produced in partnership with the David Hume Institute. Since the Tracker began in 2021, healthcare and the cost of living have consistently been the top two issues for Scots, and they remain firmly so today.

In the most recent wave in November, 47% identified the NHS as a top concern and 38% chose the cost of living. Other important issues include immigration (22%), the economy (19%), poverty and inequality (19%), and trust in politics (16%). What’s notable is not just the ranking of these concerns, but their stability: they’ve persisted through changes in leadership, party fortunes and wider events.

The regional figures add further texture. In all eight Scottish Parliamentary regions, the top two local concerns remain healthcare and the cost of living. The order flips in just two areas, North East Scotland and Glasgow, where people are slightly more likely to prioritise the cost of living.

Beyond that, there are distinctive local patterns: immigration features more prominently in some regions, poverty and inequality in others, and issues like housing or the wider economy surface as key concerns depending on the area (see the table below). These variations don’t disrupt the national picture, but they do show how different communities experience national trends in their own way.

Polling we conducted for OEUK, released this month, reinforces how central these matters are likely to be in shaping voting behaviour. When people are asked what will drive their decisions at the ballot box, the answers follow a familiar pattern: the NHS comes first (56%), followed by the cost of living (49%), and then the economy, jobs and wages (32%).

When we look at the outcomes people want to see from economic policy, they tend to focus on the practical: lower prices for household essentials, job creation in key sectors, and investment to support modern manufacturing and engineering.

But expectations are modest. Only 21% expect job availability in Scotland to grow over the next five years, and just 18% believe the economy is currently performing well.

This context also shapes how voters view the political parties themselves. When asked which party they trust most to deliver across the NHS, the cost of living, and the economy, the SNP is the most trusted of the parties in each category , though in each case with support around the 30% mark. Labour, Reform UK, the Conservatives, the Greens and the Liberal Democrats all attract far lower levels of trust.

The most telling finding, however, is that on all three issues, the single largest group is those who choose “none of the above”, with around a third selecting this option across the board. This indicates that a substantial proportion of voters do not currently feel any party has made a convincing case on the issues that matter most to them.

These findings come at a time when public conversation has been dominated by concerns about inflation, wider global economic uncertainty, scrutiny of healthcare services and questions about transparency in government. While each of these stories has its own dynamics, together they form part of the wider environment in which people are thinking about the months ahead.

All of this points to an election shaped primarily by practical issues rather than big shifts in political identity. Voters appear to be looking for credible plans that speak directly to their priorities: stable and accessible healthcare, manageable living costs, and economic conditions that feel more secure than they do today.

Parties of all stripes face the same challenge, to set out proposals that meet these expectations in a context where trust is limited and many people are cautiously assessing their options.