New Poll Shows SNP Ahead as 2026 Holyrood Race Takes Shape
Published
A new poll for Diffley Partnership shows the SNP maintaining a strong advantage as Scotland moves toward the 2026 Scottish Parliament election, with the party continuing to lead on both the constituency and regional list votes.
The survey of over 1,000 adults across Scotland, carried out online using the Survation panel, captures current voting intentions as well as public views on political leaders and the performance of both the Scottish and UK Governments.
The SNP records 37% on the constituency ballot and 33% on the list vote, placing them significantly ahead of their rivals. Labour trails on 18% and 17% respectively, while the Conservatives register 12% and 13%.
Reform UK, polls at 17% on both ballots—matching Labour on the list and ahead of the Conservatives in constituency voting intention. The Liberal Democrats register 9% on both the constituency and list ballots, while the Scottish Greens record 6% on the constituency vote and 9% on the regional list.
Based on these figures, the projected distribution of seats would be:
- SNP: 64
- Reform UK: 19
- Labour: 17
- Conservatives: 13
- Scottish Greens: 9
- Liberal Democrats: 7
Leader favourability scores present a mixed picture. John Swinney achieves the closest to a balanced rating, with the public almost evenly split on his performance. Keir Starmer faces a substantially negative perception among Scottish voters, while Anas Sarwar’s numbers place him ahead of his UK counterpart but still in net negative territory. Malcolm Offord remains unfamiliar to much of the electorate, with most respondents expressing no view.
Public assessments of governmental performance reveal a clear divide. While neither administration secures majority approval, 40% of Scots say they approve of the Scottish Government’s record, compared with just 25% who say the same of the UK Government.
When asked which government’s record will matter most in shaping their 2026 Holyrood vote, a majority (54%) point to the Scottish Government. Only 21% cite the UK Government, suggesting that devolved issues are set to play a dominant role in the upcoming election.
Tables available below:
Diffley Partnership – Data Tables – Survation – February 2026- WEB