Labour rout can create permanent shift in Scottish politics
From the moment the long-awaited exit poll dropped at 10pm on Thursday, it was clear that the big winners of the night in Scotland would be Labour, with the party returning its best result since 2010.
In the end Sir Keir Starmer’s party routed the SNP, winning 37 seats (up 36 from the last election in 2019) while the Nationalists fell from 48 seats in 2019 to a paltry nine now. The worst fears of the SNP were realised as seats across the central belt fell like a stack of dominoes throughout the night, including a clean sweep of SNP-held seats in Glasgow and Edinburgh.
Ultimately, Scottish Labour’s message that this election should be seen as an opportunity to replace an unpopular UK government resonated more with voters than the SNP’s hope of persuading voters to preserve its party’s dominance at Westminster to help keep the independence dream alive.
The other big story of the night was the defeat of outgoing Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross, whose decision to stand in Aberdeenshire North & Moray East caused much controversy and internal party strife. He lost the seat to the SNP by under 1,000 votes in a contest where Reform UK polled over 5,000 votes, marking the single biggest impact that Nigel Farage’s party had on the Scottish result.
More broadly, it was mixed fortunes for the Tories. As predicted by the polls, the party’s vote share fell by about a half to 13 per cent though they will find some solace in returning five MPs, just one fewer than 2019. As with their counterparts in England, the Scottish Liberal Democrats will be happy with their return of at least five MPs and will be particularly satisfied with picking up the Mid Dunbartonshire seat back from the SNP.
While Labour celebrates and the SNP begins its post-mortem, attention will turn to why the change in Scotland was so seismic and what it means for the 2026 Holyrood election and beyond.
The story of the night is likely to lie in a range of factors. At 59 per cent, turnout in Scotland was down by nine points from 2019. In addition, pre-election polling pointed to more than 20 per cent of Scots intending to vote tactically, with Labour being the main beneficiary.
While these issues may have dampened support for the SNP at the margins, they cannot explain the extent of the party’s reversal in fortunes, going from a 45 per cent share of the vote in 2019 to 30 per cent today. Polling evidence shows voters have been deserting the SNP for the past 18 months and Thursday was the first manifestation of that reality. The party will worry that the result will push the cause of independence further back, its diminished band of MPs having minimal influence over a Labour government voted in with a landslide.
For Scottish Labour, the result presents a big opportunity to make Thursday the staging post for a more permanent shift in Scottish politics. Many SNP and, crucially, independence supporters lent the party their votes and will be looking for the Labour government to prove its worth in Scotland, perhaps through the establishment of the new GB Energy or by extending the power of devolution in areas such as migration.
If Starmer can deliver in Scotland in the next 18 months, then Anas Sarwar will feel confident that he will be Scotland’s new first minister in 2026, Labour’s first incumbent at Bute House since 2011.
Article originally published in The Times on 5 July 2024.