New Polling: SNP on course to be largest party though short of a majority

With just 10 days to go before the Holyrood election, we have released new polling today which  suggests the Scottish National Party (SNP) is on course to remain the largest party in the Scottish Parliament following the election in May, although the party is projected to fall short of securing an outright majority.

The poll, conducted using the Survation online panel, also finds Scotland evenly divided on the constitutional implications of the election. While a narrow majority of voters say they would currently back independence in another referendum, opinion is split on whether election results would provide a clear mandate for holding another independence referendum, highlighting the continued uncertainty surrounding the independence debate alongside a highly competitive electoral contest.

Voting Intention

The SNP continue to lead on both ballots, polling at 38% on the constituency vote and 29% on the regional list, placing the party clearly ahead of its rivals.

Reform UK and Scottish Labour are closely matched behind the SNP, with Reform polling at 20% on the constituency vote and 19% on the list, compared to Labour’s 18% and 17%.

The Conservatives sit further back on 12% on both ballots. As in previous elections, the Greens record most of their support on the list (12%) rather than in constituencies (2%) given they are only contesting six constituency seats, while the Liberal Democrats poll at around one in ten voters across both ballots.

Based on this single poll, Diffley Partnership modelling projects that the seat shares for each party are as follows:

• SNP – 62 seats
• Reform – 19 seats
• Labour – 17 seats
• Green-12 seats
• Conservative – 11 seats
• Liberal Democrats – 8 seats

Voters split on mandate for another independence referendum

Voters remain closely divided on the question of Scottish independence. When asked how they would vote in another referendum, 52% say they would vote Yes, while 48% say they would vote No.

Opinion is similarly split on whether election results would constitute a mandate for a referendum on Scottish independence. A narrow majority (52%) agree that the election of a pro‑independence majority of MSPs would provide such a mandate, while 48% disagree.

When asked specifically about an SNP majority, the same division is observed: 52% believe it would give a mandate for another independence referendum, while 48% say it would not.

Leaders

The poll also measured public favourability towards party leaders:

•  John Swinney records a net favourability score of –4, with 42% viewing the First Minister favourably and 47% unfavourably.
• Anas Sarwar records a net score of –19 (31% favourable, 50% unfavourable).
• Malcolm Offord records a net score of –21, with 19% favourable and 40% unfavourable, while 41% say they do not hold a view.

The poll asked respondents to imagine a hypothetical scenario in which only two people could become the next First Minister. Of the possible head-to-head matchups including John Swinney, Anas Sarwar and Malcolm Offord:

• 58% prefer Swinney over Sarwar, while 42% opt for Sarwar over the current First Minister
• 68% select Swinney over Offord, while 32% prefer Offord to Swinney
• 60% choose Sarwar over Offord, compared to the 40% who prefer Offord to Sarwar

Views on coalitions

Nearly half of voters (47%) say they would prefer a single party majority government following the election. A smaller proportion (18%) favour a formal coalition between two or more parties, while 15% say they would prefer a minority government that works with other parties on a case by case basis. One in five voters (20%) say they do not know what type of outcome they would prefer.

The poll also asked respondents to consider how favourable they were towards different governing arrangements in the event that no single party secures a majority in the Scottish Parliament:

• A SNP minority government is the most acceptable option to voters, with a net favourability score of –1 (42% favourable, 44% unfavourable).
• This is followed by a SNP–Green coalition, which records a net score of –8 (40% favourable, 48% unfavourable).
• A Labour minority government is less popular, with a net favourability score of –21 (34% favourable, 54% unfavourable).
• A coalition involving Labour performs slightly better, at –17 (35% favourable, 53% unfavourable).
• Any governing arrangement involving Reform UK records a net favourability score of –16 (36% favourable, 52% unfavourable). This option also attracts the strongest strength of opposition, with 43% saying they would be very unfavourable towards such an outcome.

Scott Edgar, Senior Research Manager of Diffley Partnership said:
“This polling suggests a complex and finely balanced contest. While the SNP remain clearly ahead and on course to be the largest party, albeit short of an overall majority, support for the other parties is broadly dispersed.

If these figures were repeated on polling day, Scotland would be heading towards a fragmented parliament, meaning relatively small shifts in support between now and next Thursday could have a significant impact on the final distribution of seats.

At the same time, voters are divided on both the independence question itself and on whether a pro-independence majority in the parliament would amount to a clear mandate for another referendum.

Attitudes towards minority and coalition arrangements are similarly mixed, suggesting that post‑election decision‑making will take place in the absence of a clear consensus.”

The data tables are available here:

Diffley-Partnership-Data-Tables-Survation-24th-April-2026.xlsx