Scotland’s 2026 Election: A Year of Uncertainty and Opportunity

As Scotland approaches the 2026 Holyrood election, the political landscape is more unsettled than at any point in the SNP’s 19-year tenure. The next year will be defined by volatility, new political forces, and voters focused on important day-to-day concerns. The outcome will shape not just the immediate formation of the next government, but the way Holyrood works over the next Parliament.

The State of the Race

The latest polling averages for the 2026 Scottish Parliament election point to a more fragmented and unpredictable contest than in previous elections. Despite significant reversals at last year’s general election, at this point the SNP is in pole position to be the biggest party at Holyrood next year, although a handful of seats short of an overall majority, while Labour’s momentum from the 2024 UK election has reversed.

Following their strong performance at last year’s general election, Reform UK is set to make a dramatic entrance to Holyrood, while the Conservatives continue to be in sharp decline. Meanwhile, the Greens and Liberal Democrats look likely to make some gains and could play pivotal roles in a likely hung parliament. Alba remains on the margins. With no party on course for a majority, coalition-building and cross-party negotiation look set to define the next Holyrood term.

The SNP: Still Ahead, But No Longer Unstoppable

The SNP is polling on average at 34% on the constituency vote and 28% on the regional list, with a projected 61 seats, down from 64 in 2021. After nearly two decades in office, the party is under pressure to show it can deliver fresh solutions on the NHS, cost of living, and housing, rather than relying on its past record or the independence question. The SNP’s campaign will need to balance continuity with renewal, offering a credible plan for public services while keeping its core base engaged with a realistic plan for a second referendum. Rivals will focus on the length of SNP rule and argue that new thinking is needed for Scotland’s next chapter.

Labour: Momentum Lost

Labour’s dramatic gains at the 2024 general election suggested a real contest for Holyrood. However, since last summer, Labour’s momentum has stalled and they enter the 2026 election with a complex task. Labour is polling at 18.6% (constituency) and 17.8% (region), with an indicative projection of 18 seats, down four from 2021. Crucially, the party was polling at above 30% in constituency vote projections in the lead up to the 2024 UK General Election, demonstrating the drop-off in support since assuming office UK-wide.

The party must demonstrate that it is both a credible alternative to the SNP in government and a party capable of delivering for Scotland in its own right. This means not only setting out a distinctive Scottish vision, one that resonates with voters’ priorities on the NHS, cost of living, and public services, but also defending its record in government at Westminster, where recent challenges have affected perceptions north of the border. The party’s ability to strike this balance, offering both credible leadership and a clear, positive agenda for Scotland, will be central to its prospects.

Reform UK and the Conservatives: Shaking Up the Landscape

Reform UK is polling at 15.8% (constituency) and 16.4% (region), with an indicative projection of 17 seats, up from zero in 2021. Their rise reflects a populist, anti-establishment appeal, drawing support primarily from disaffected Conservative and Labour voters, further dividing the pro-union base from which it draws the vast majority of its support.

The Conservatives, meanwhile, have seen their support collapse to 11.6% (constituency) and 12.8% (region), with a projected 12 seats, down a dramatic 19 from 2021. This collapse in Tory support has its roots in the deep unpopularity of UK Conservative governments and Reform UK are the main beneficiaries. Reform UK’s breakthrough and the Conservative decline could make any coalition-building more complex after the Holyrood election.

Greens and Liberal Democrats: Crucial Partners in a Fragmented Parliament

The Greens are polling at 7.0% (constituency) and 10.2% (region), with a projected 10 seats (up two). Under new leadership, they are focused on climate action, social justice, and progressive reforms. The Liberal Democrats are polling at 10.4% (constituency) and 10.8% (region), with a projected 11 seats (up seven), pitching themselves as champions of practical, community-focused solutions. Both parties could play pivotal roles in a likely hung parliament, using their influence to shape policy and government formation.

What Matters Most to Voters?

Our quarterly Understanding Scotland research has been tracking public attitudes on priorities for Scotland since 2021.

In the latest edition for August 2025, featured in the Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker report produced with the David Hume Institute, healthcare continues to dominate public concern, with 48% of Scots selecting it as a top issue. The cost of living remains the second most pressing issue, cited by 37%, reflecting a gradual rise over recent months.

Immigration has now emerged as the third most mentioned priority, selected by 21%, up from 16% last quarter and just 4% in May 2023. Other issues such as poverty and inequality (18%), the economy (15%), trust in politics (14%), and housing (14%) remain important to many, though their levels of concern have remained relatively stable.

While healthcare and the cost of living are firmly established as top-tier concerns, the group of mid-ranking issues, immigration, poverty, the economy, and housing, represent a significant share of public attention. A serious policy intervention or campaign focus in any of these areas could elevate them to the centre of the election debate. For parties looking to break through or differentiate themselves, this cluster of issues offers both risk and opportunity.

The Big Questions for 2026

As we move towards May, several important questions will shape both the campaign and the next parliament. At Diffley Partnership, we’ll be exploring these themes in depth in a series of blogs between now and election day:

• Can the SNP regain enough support to govern alone, or will coalition and compromise become the new normal at Holyrood?
• Will Labour succeed in distinguishing itself from the UK government and convince voters it can deliver better for Scotland?
• How far will Reform UK’s breakthrough go and what is driving people towards the party?
• How will all parties respond to the urgent concerns of voters: the NHS, cost of living, energy, and demographic change?
• Will the independence debate remain in the background, or could it return to dominate the agenda?
• How will a more fragmented parliament affect the ability to pass legislation and deliver on key promises?

Stay tuned as we unpack these questions and more, providing evidence-based insights to help you navigate the road to May 2026.

How Diffley Partnership Can Help You

In this era of political uncertainty and shifting priorities, understanding what matters to voters, and how parties are responding, has never been more important.

Diffley Partnership’s regular polling, in-depth analysis, and bespoke research can help you anticipate change, identify opportunities, and navigate the complexities of a more divided Holyrood. If you want to make informed decisions and stay ahead in 2026, get in touch to see how our insights can support you as you prepare for the election and the aftermath.

We’ll also be on the ground at party conferences throughout the campaign, starting with the SNP conference in a couple of weeks time and our expert team are available for interview and comment throughout the campaign.

You can get in touch with us at [email protected] to discuss how we can help you ahead of next year’s election.