Scottish Greens Head into Autumn Conference with Confidence

As the Scottish Greens gather in Edinburgh for their Autumn Conference, our Senior Research Manager Scott Edgar takes stock of the party’s position heading into a pivotal election year. With stable polling, a growing membership, and a new leadership team at the helm, the Greens are entering the 2026 Holyrood campaign with confidence. In this blog, Scott explores what’s driving their confidence, and what it might mean for the future political landscape in Scotland.

As Scotland’s political landscape continues to shift ahead of the 2026 Holyrood election, the Scottish Greens have maintained a notably stable position in the regional list polls, the part of the Holyrood electoral system from where they primarily gain their seats in parliament.

While support for other parties has fluctuated significantly over recent years , the Greens have consistently polled at around 10% on average in the regional list with no major dips or surges. This consistency stands out in a period marked by volatility as pointed out by Mark in last week’s blog. This stability is particularly notable given that the party had a period of being in power with the SNP via the Bute House Agreement, a pact that, although ending in acrimony, has not negatively impacted on support for the junior partner.

The Greens’ steady polling suggests a resilient core of support, likely driven by their clear policy identity. This stability could prove crucial in the run-up to the 2026 election and provide a solid base upon which to build as the campaign starts in earnest. Current seat projections based on polling averages suggest that the Scottish Greens will return 10 MSPs, an increase from 2021 and a figure they believe they can build on.

New Leadership, Growing Movement

The Scottish Greens enter their Autumn Conference with a new leadership team and a growing membership base. Ross Greer and Gillian Mackay, elected co-leaders earlier this year, represent a generational shift in direction, bringing renewed energy and a focus on climate justice and social equity.

Under their leadership, the party has seen a surge in membership, growing by 800 in the past six months to reach 8,279 , its highest total since 2016 and now ahead of both the Scottish Conservatives and Scottish Liberal Democrats.

Leaders have attributed the membership surge to the party’s track record in government, including delivering free bus travel for young people and scrapping peak rail fares ,and to its broader message of hope and fairness in a time of economic pressure.

This growth is being matched by ambition: the Greens are not only aiming to increase their regional list representation but are also targeting wins in constituency seats in the 2026 Holyrood election, including in the seat currently held by Nicola Sturgeon in Glasgow Southside.

Looking Ahead

As the political landscape in Scotland continues to evolve, the Scottish Greens are aiming to consolidate their gains and expand their influence. With a strong showing in the polls, a growing membership, and a leadership team focused on bold policy ideas, the party enters its Autumn Conference with momentum, and a clear eye on the 2026 election.

With the SNP unlikely to secure a majority on its own, the Scottish Greens will play a decisive role in forming a pro-independence majority at Holyrood in 2026. Their stable polling, growing membership, and constituency ambitions position them as a key force in shaping the balance of the next Parliament and potentially the future of Scotland’s constitutional direction.

If the party does hold the balance of power next year, it may need to decide whether it tries to reach a new agreement with the SNP or try to wield its influence from outside of government.