Scottish Parliament Election 2026: Results Live Blog

Results for the 2026 Scottish Parliament election are due to be announced from 12:00 onwards today.

We will be updating this page throughout the day with results and analysis on how results shape the overall picture as they come in.

Below is a map that we will be updating showing constituency results announced alongside our projection.

Below we will be adding analysis throughout the day, this page is being managed by Scott Edgar, Senior Research Manager, and Will Scheffler, Researcher throughout the day.

Final Results -09:00 Saturday 9th May

And finally, following the declaration of all the list results, the final results are as follows:

• SNP- 58 seats
• Labour- 17 seats
• Reform UK- 17 seats
• Scottish Greens- 15 seats
• Conservative- 12 seats
• Liberal Democrats- 10 seats

Overall, the SNP remain the largest party comfortably albeit short of a majority as predicted.  The likelihood is that the SNP will govern as a minority and seek deals on legislations and budgets over the course of the Parliament.  There are also now five parties who have returned between 10 and 17 seats meaning the dynamics of this session are going to be interesting in an era of multi-party politics.

Turnout was down by 10 points from 2021, to 53%.

We will be writing in detail over the coming days and weeks further analysis on the results and what they mean.  We are also happy with our projection model and how it performed and will be writing further analysis on this too!

Thank you very much for following along.

Another huge upset in the Highlands and Islands -20:40

Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch has just been called for the Liberal Democrats – a huge upset in a seat that was comfortably held by SNP rising star Kate Forbes until she decided to stand down at this election. This will be a massive celebration for the Lib Dems, who managed to translate some of their General Election success in the overlapping Westminster seat, which they also took from the SNP two years ago.

Modelling almost uniformly called this seat for the SNP, adding yet another surprising result to the map in the Highlands and Islands. The implication of this is likely that the SNP will pick up a seat on the regional list, assuming their peach ballot vote share holds up.

The last time the SNP lost this many constituencies in the Highlands and Islands was in 2007.

 

Big swings in Inverness and Nairn -20:09 PM

In Inverness and Nairn, Independent candidate (and former SNP MSP) Fergus Ewing put in a massive effort and won more than 21% of the vote. Viewing this in tandem with a massive swing towards the Liberal Democrats means that the SNP lead in the constituency has been well and truly slashed. They still hold onto the seat, but the party’s vote share decreases from 48% notionally in 2021 to just 30%, and their majority stands at just 427 votes.

 

Reform looking nervous? -19:52 PM

As regional results come in, Reform UK look to be slightly underperforming relative to expectations ahead of the election. Their vote share sits at just 16%, a bit below how pollsters thought they would perform. Too early to say, but is it possible that Reform fail to come second once all votes are counted?

 

Edinburgh and Lothians East a success for the Greens -19:40 PM

As predicted in our modelling, the Scottish Greens with three regional list seats in Edinburgh and Lothians East and are just circa. 1800 votes off of topping the vote share in the region. This result, combined with their two constituency wins and one list seat each in North East Scotland and Mid Scotland and Fife, takes them to seven seats in Holyrood so far – five regions are still yet to declare.

 

Strathkelvin and Bearsden -17:40 PM

A gargantuan win for the Liberal Democrats has just been called in Strathkelvin and Bearsden – where the party claims that Adam Harley has knocked over 40,000 doors throughout his campaign. The Lib Dems have managed to carry through local support from their recent Council by-election win in Bearsden South and their General Election win in the overlapping UK Parliament constituency of Mid Dunbartonshire.

The party is still waiting on three seats in the Highlands and Islands – Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch, Inverness and Nairn, and Caithness Sutherland and Ross. We think that the Lib Dems will only manage to win in Caithness, while the other two will stay with the SNP. A pretty huge effort from the SNP in the region today.

 

Nearing the end of the constituency count -17:14 PM

Just nine constituencies are yet to declare as the count begins for the regional ballot – we think it extremely unlikely that the SNP wins any further seats once the constituency votes are counted. As we predicted, Reform UK have won zero constituencies (and we expect it to say that way), so the party will be aiming to gain as many seats as possible from the D’Hondt formula.

 

Glasgow Southside Turned -17:05 PM

Another surprise result – Glasgow Southside, Nicola Sturgeon’s old constituency, has been taken by the Scottish Greens. Many activists argued that the demographics of the seat made it rife for a Green gain, but our model had it staying with the SNP. The result means that the Scottish Greens win a total of two constituencies this election, as the party is not standing in any of the seats which are yet to declare. They will be watching the peach ballot figures closely as they come in, looking to make gains in each region across the country.

 

Catching up on a flurry of results -16:38 PM

A bit of a mixed bag for our modelling over the last hour or so – in the positives column, Edinburgh Central has been called for the Scottish Greens as predicted. Angus Robertson and the SNP slipped into third place, which will likely be one of the headlines once all is said and done. The Greens were unable to carry this momentum through to Glasgow Kelvin and Maryhill and Edinburgh North Eastern and Leith, while all eyes at Green HQ remain on Glasgow Southside.

We are still waiting for a few results in the West of Scotland which could make a difference to Labour’s campaign – notably in Dumbarton and Clydebank and Milngavie. They are currently overperforming MRP expectations by about 5%, so it looks unlikely that they could pick up any other seats.

The Liberal Democrats, as expected, have won Edinburgh North Western and Edinburgh Northern. The party is still waiting on a few results in the Highlands and Islands (Caithness, Sutherland and Ross, Argyll and Bute, and Strathkelvin and Bearsden). The party’s UK leader, Ed Davey, has announced he will be paying a visit to Scotland this evening to celebrate the anticipated election success, so party activists will be hoping that they are able to capitalise on these last few seats.

The Conservative vote seems to have held up better than expected in the North East of Scotland; Alexander Burnett’s win in Aberdeenshire West means that the SNP has failed to sweep all constituencies in the Region. And as predicted in our model, the Conservatives have now swept the three constituencies next to the border.

We currently forecast that the SNP will end up with 59 seats when all is said and done.

 

Galloway and West Dumfries  -15:08 PM

The most marginal seat on our model was Galloway and West Dumfries which we called for the Conservatives.  Finlay Carson returns as MSP with a 38% vote share, will be interesting to keep an eye on what this means for other seats in the region including Dumfriesshire which we projected as a Conservative ‘lean’.

 

Eastwood goes SNP  -15:02 PM

Another on our ‘too close to call’ list was Eastwood, we projected this as a narrow SNP victory.  The SNP have won the seat by just 732 votes. A very close one!

 

Na h-Eileanan Siar goes to Labour, SNP hold Paisley and Cowdenbeath  -14:34 PM

We have just seen Labour take Na h-Eileanan Siar, which we were projecting for the SNP. The SNP have also taken Paisley and Cowdenbeath, in line with our projections.

State of play 17 seats declared are the SNP sitting on 15, Labour on 1 and Liberal Democrats on 1.

National vote share so far:

• SNP- 40.3%
• Labour- 18.6%
• Reform UK- 16.2%
• Conservative- 13.9%
• Lib Dem- 9.5%

 

Banffshire and Buchan Coast -14:47 PM

A big update: the first “toss-up” seat from our modelling has just been called – and we are delighted to say our projection was spot on. In Banffshire and Buchan Coast, the SNP candidate has been elected, with 35% of the vote; Reform UK was just behind on 34%.

We flagged this as one to watch, and the close result did not disappoint.

 

Results broadly in line with polling -14:34 PM

We have just seen Stephen Flynn take Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine and John Swinney retain Perthshire North.  A flurry of seats that have come in over the last 30 minute, all of which have gone to the SNP.  Taking their total of the 12 seats declared so far to 11.

Generally speaking the results we’ve seen so far are broadly in line with what the polling would suggest beyond the Shetland Islands.

 

Our first surprise of the day -13:42 PM

The first massive surprise of the day as the SNP take Shetland off of the Liberal Democrats, a seat that hasn’t changed hands since the start of devolution. Our prediction here was a Lib Dem hold by quite a large margin; MRPs also wildly off here, understating the SNP vote by 26%. Much of this could come down to local factors and an exceptionally strong local candidate for the SNP in Hannah Mary Goodlad.

Back on the mainland, results have just come in for three more constituencies – Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley, Dundee City West, and Dundee City East. Our modelling correctly predicted each of these seats, but we are picking up on a (very) early trend on other models – on average, MRPs seem to be slightly understating Labour and giving a bit too much credit to Reform. TBD if this holds up as more results come in…

 

So far, so expected -12:55 PM

We have had our first two results in, with the Liberal Democrats storming to victory in the Orkney Islands with 70% of the vote and the SNP comfortably taking Dundee City West with 49% of the vote.