Scottish Parliament Election Final Projection
Published
We are delighted to publish our final seat projection for the 2026 Scottish Parliament election. This projection is based on each of the final polls from YouGov, Ipsos, Norstat, Survation and More in Common.
Our final projection is as follows:
- SNP- 56 seats
- Reform UK- 19 seats
- Labour- 18 seats
- Greens- 16 seats
- Conservative- 11 seats
- Liberal Democrats- 9 seats
The map below shows our projection for each constituency in Scotland and the following graphic our projection in each region.
Our model takes the 2021 Holyrood result as its starting point, recalculated onto the updated constituency and regional boundaries, and then applies change rather than starting from scratch. We estimate shifts in support using an average of the five most recent polls, modelling separate swings by party, ballot type and region rather than assuming a single national movement. This allows for uneven changes in support across Scotland and avoids forcing local results to mirror headline polling figures.
From there, the model adjusts for real‑world voting behaviour that polls cannot always capture well. We redistribute Green support in constituencies where they are not standing, allow for seat‑specific tactical voting in close contests, and introduce a small amount of controlled local variation to account for factors like candidates, turnout and ground campaigns. For our final seat projection we simulated the election 5,000 times, with the most common constituency winners fed into the D’Hondt formula to produce the final seat projection.
You can find our projection for each constituency below with first party, second party and our determination of how close the contest is likely to be:
Diffley Partnership constituency seat projection
The nature of our model is such that we are attributing a winner to every seat on the basis of the most wins from our simulations.
In order to indicate how competitive we believe seats to be we have included categories alongside our projection:
- Too close to call
- Lean
- Likely
- Safe