SNP maintain strong lead over Scottish Labour for both Holyrood and Westminster, new poll finds

The Scottish National Party (SNP) continues to command a clear lead over its rivals in both Holyrood and Westminster voting intentions, according to a new poll carried out by Survation on behalf of Edinburgh-based research agency Diffley Partnership.

The survey asked over 1,000 Scots how they would vote in Scottish Parliament and Westminster parliament elections as well as how they would vote in an independence referendum.

Holyrood 2026

In voting intentions for the Scottish Parliament, the SNP leads with 36% backing the party in the constituency vote. On the regional list, support stands at 28% – ahead of Labour, which polls at 22% in both ballots. The Scottish Conservatives come in at 13% for the constituency vote and 16% on the list.

Reform UK registers double-digit support, with 14% of respondents saying they would vote for the party in the constituency ballot and 12% in the list vote.

Westminster

When it comes to Westminster, 33% would support the SNP, 24% would support Labour, 15% would vote for Reform UK, and 14% for the Conservatives.

Independence Referendum

The poll also surveyed how respondents would vote in an independence referendum: 49% reported that they would vote Yes, while 51% would vote No.

Scott Edgar, Senior Research Manager at Diffley Partnership said:
“With the 2026 Scottish Parliament elections just a year away, this poll shows the SNP are in pole position to remain the largest party at Holyrood come next May.

Despite Labour’s efforts in recent months, they have yet to make significant inroads into the SNP’s lead.

Meanwhile, Reform UK’s polling performance indicates that they will be a force to be reckoned with at next year’s election.

As the election approaches, all parties will be looking to seize the narrative, clearly articulate their vision, and make a compelling pitch to voters in what promises to be one of the most consequential elections since devolution.”

Topline results can be downloaded here:

April 2025-Voter Intention Poll-Diffley Partnership

Data tables can be download here:

April 2025-Voter Intention Poll- Diffley Partnership- FOR WEB