Things are getting better. Someone forgot to tell the public.

In defence of public opinion research as a metric for policy success, Diffley Partnership Researcher Will Scheffler explores the divergence between official statistics and public sentiment, and shows that falling inflation, lower NHS waiting lists, and shifting migration figures aren’t necessarily cutting through among Scots.

We have seen it time and time again. A confident government minister stands before parliamentary colleagues to laud the successes of the governing party. Inflation is falling. Migration is under better control. NHS waiting lists are coming down. A picture is painted of a rosier country, and that everything is getting better.

And yet, across public opinion polls, we consistently see pessimism prevail and political disaffection deepen, all the while the government’s approval rating remains stuck in the mud. So are government statistics on inflation, net migration and the health service actually moving the needle of public opinion? And should politicians and those seeking to influence public policy continue to rely on them as a measure for policy success?

This disconnect between these measures is not hypothetical. Research and polling show that the public’s views often lag or diverge from official indicators.

As an example, new polling released this month by More in Common found that two-thirds of Brits (67%) believe that net migration is rising, despite real figures falling sharply by two-thirds in the year ending June 2025. Our own work for Migration Policy Scotland in 2024 also found that the public tend to dramatically overestimate the proportion of the Scottish population that was born outside the UK (see the figure below).

We see similarly sustained concern when it comes to the NHS. According to Scottish Government statistics, waiting lists are gradually decreasing across Scotland, and the health service is continuing to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. And yet, every health-related focus group we facilitate at Diffley Partnership, participants say they are “lucky” for getting a timely GP appointment or dub it a miracle that they are only waiting a short time for an operation. Improvements to the health service, where they exist, are often not yet experienced as a new normal. In fact, according to our research for Enlighten at the end of last year, nearly eight in ten Scots (77%) think the health service will be worse in ten years than it is now.

The cost of living illustrates this divergence particularly clearly. Headline inflation has fallen sharply from its peak in 2022-23, easing significantly over the past two years. But falling inflation does not mean that prices are falling. It means that prices are rising more slowly than before.

For households in Scotland, the experience is cumulative. Food, energy, housing and everyday essentials have become markedly more expensive during the inflation spike and have largely remained so. Against that backdrop, official reassurances that inflation is “coming down” can feel disconnected from daily life. As a result, concern about the cost of living remains persistently high in public opinion polling, even as the macroeconomic indicators improve.

Our latest Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker in collaboration with the David Hume Institute shows that seven in ten people in Scotland (69%) believe the economy is generally worse now than it was a year ago and three-quarters (73%) say it will deteriorate further in the next year.

To avoid the blunder of calling a few million Scots wrong and breaking out into a rendition of “Don’t Worry Be Happy”, it is important to recognise that this divergence of perception and official indicators could be down to a few (valid) reasons. The most likely explanation is local and individual experience. Our past work with The Health Foundation showed that access to healthcare varies significantly by area and community across Scotland. Similarly, the cost-of-living squeeze is not evenly felt. Macro-level indicators can therefore mask deep and persistent pockets of need that only surface through polling and qualitative research.

It is also likely that some concern is due to continued political salience of issues that one party or another wants to keep on the public agenda. Others may be fully aware of improvements and even recognise them, but remain unhappy with the rate of change. All valid reasons for disappointment, and the real answer is likely a combination of these factors.

Official statistics are a great tool for understanding what has happened at a macro level. But too often politicians take a victory lap when the public hasn’t perceived any real impact, when people do not feel that their lives have materially improved. Official data should not be ignored. It tells us whether inflation has fallen, waiting lists have shortened, or wages have risen. But it cannot tell us whether those changes are visible or meaningful to voters. That requires a second track of evidence: opinion polling and qualitative research.

This distinction will be particularly important in the run-up to the 2026 Holyrood election. Official statistics will be leaned on heavily to inform party communications about what is happening in Scotland. But in-depth issue polling and qualitative research, like the work we offer at Diffley Partnership, will reveal whether voters believe those claims or feel any difference at all. And that is what will shape behaviour at the ballot box in just under 100 days.

The mistake is not using official statistics. The mistake is assuming they are sufficient on their own.