When a majority is in question
Published
Our latest polling, published earlier this week, suggests that the Scottish Parliament election is shaping up to return the SNP as the largest party albeit short of a majority. The poll conducted between 16 and 23 March among more than 1,000 adults across Scotland sets out the starting positions for the parties as campaigning gets underway now that Parliament has wrapped up.
On voting intention, the SNP lead both Holyrood ballots, polling 35% on the constituency vote and 32% on the regional list. Labour and Reform UK are tied on 19% each on the constituency ballot. On the regional list, Reform’s support slightly outstrips that of Labour, registering 18% to Labour’s 17%. The Conservatives poll at 11% on the constituency vote and 13% on the list, the Scottish Greens at 8% and 11%, and the Liberal Democrats at 8% on both ballots.
Taken together, these figures point to a parliament in which the SNP are likely to remain the largest party, projected here to return 62 MSPs, short of the 65 required for an outright majority. Reform UK would emerge with 19 seats, narrowly ahead of Labour on 18, with the Conservatives (13), Greens (10) and Liberal Democrats (7) all retaining representation.
This matters because relatively small changes in support over the coming weeks could have meaningful consequences for the final seat picture. With votes spread across several parties, modest movement could shift the distribution of seats, alter who holds leverage, and reshape post-election options. Where control of the parliament may hinge on a small number of seats, marginal movement rather than large swings may prove decisive.
That arithmetic also shapes the potential impact of leadership. Since February, fewer voters now say they “don’t know” what they think of each party leader, indicating increased engagement as the campaign begins. At the same time, that attention has been accompanied by more critical judgement.
John Swinney remains the most positively viewed of the Scottish party leaders, though he still records a net favourability of –10%. Anas Sarwar sits at –25%, while Reform leader Malcolm Offord posts –15%, with 55% of voters saying they do not yet have a settled view of him.
Head to head match ups for First Minister add further context. Swinney is preferred to Sarwar by 55% to 45%, and by 65% to 35% over Offord, while Sarwar leads Offord by 58% to 42%. On their own, these comparisons do not determine the outcome of the election. However, in a contest where parliamentary control may rest on a small number of seats, differences in leadership perception can take on greater significance than they would in a less finely balanced race.
It is in that context that this week’s exchanges between Swinney and Sarwar make sense. With the polling pointing towards the SNP falling short of a majority, Swinney has begun to raise doubts about what a non SNP majority outcome might look like in practice. In particular, he has suggested that Labour could look to work with Reform.
Our own polling helps explain why this line of attack is being deployed. When respondents are asked to imagine a straight choice between the SNP and Reform in a constituency contest, Labour voters are far more likely to say they would back the SNP rather than move to Reform (among those who don’t say they will continue to vote Labour). Casting Labour as a potential route through which Reform could gain influence therefore serves a clear strategic purpose, particularly in seats where margins appear tight.
Sarwar’s robust rejection of that claim reflects the other side of the same dynamic. As the campaign unfolds, arguments about who might enable whom are not simply rhetorical flourishes, but attempts to shape how voters interpret risk, responsibility and leverage in a parliament that may not deliver a clear majority to any party.
If the polling continues in this vein, questions about how parties might cooperate are likely to become harder to avoid.
Attention is likely to shift increasingly from abstract statements about what parties oppose when it comes to working together, to more concrete questions about how government could function: who might work together, on what basis, and where genuine alignment exists. In that environment, leadership credibility, messaging and small movements in support may matter more than ever in determining how Scotland is governed.
You can find the polling here: